🌍 Export Unlocked™ Daily Trade Briefing

1️⃣ Morning Summary

1. 🌐 WTO nudges up 2025 trade forecast, slashes 2026

   WTO economists now expect world merchandise trade volume to grow 2.4% in 2025, but just 0.5% in 2026, citing tariff risk and sluggish investment.

2. 🧭 Global outlook: IMF flags tariffs & uncertainty as key drags

   The IMF says clearer and more stable trade agreements could lift global output by 0.4 percentage points in the near term, with a return to lower tariffs adding another 0.3 points.

3. 🇬🇧 UK still a services-led trader with small overall deficit

   In 2024, UK exports of goods & services totalled £893 billion, imports £919 billion, leaving an overall trade deficit of £25 billion, driven by a goods deficit of £211bn partly offset by a services surplus of £186bn.

2️⃣ Breaking International Trade News (Global)

• 📈 Better-than-expected 2025, tougher 2026

  WTO’s latest outlook upgrades 2025 merchandise trade growth to 2.4%, but warns that tariff measures already in place are likely to push 2026 growth down to just 0.5%, with advanced-economy demand particularly weak.

• 🚢 Overcapacity & new U.S. port fees weigh on ocean freight

  A recent supply-chain market update notes ocean freight rates continue to decline as vessel overcapacity persists, while new U.S. port fees on Chinese-built ships add a fresh layer of disruption risk in Asia–U.S. and connecting trades.

• 🔗 Global value chains still dominate trade

  The OECD reminds that around 70% of international trade now takes place in global value chains (GVCs), with services, components and raw materials crossing borders multiple times — making every new tariff or customs rule a multi-stage exposure.

3️⃣ UK Trade & Compliance

a) 🏛️ HMRC Update

• 🧾 New “Get Customs Data” service goes live (replacing MSS)

  HMRC’s “Get customs data for import and export declarations” service, now available via CDS, lets businesses request detailed reports on their import/export entries and will replace the old MSS reports. This follows a 13 November confirmation and trade-body update.

• 🔧 Commodity code changes to maintain alignment with the EU

  HMRC has also created new sub-codes (e.g. 8433111010, 8433111090) from 19 November 2025 to keep the UK tariff structure dynamically aligned with the EU for certain machinery categories.

b) 🇬🇧 UK Trade News

• 📊 Latest ONS “UK trade: September 2025”

  The November 13 ONS release provides updated monthly figures for UK exports and imports of goods and services, showing the familiar pattern of a goods trade deficit partly offset by a services surplus. This underpins the broader 2024 pattern captured in recent parliamentary statistics.

c) 📑 UK Trade Strategy (Policy / Consultations)

• 📘 “UK trade in numbers” refreshed 20 November 2025

  DBT’s “UK trade in numbers” statistical snapshot was updated on 20 November 2025, summarising the UK’s latest trade and investment position and drawing on ONS, DBT and UNCTAD data. This document is increasingly used to steer trade-promotion priorities and sector focus.

d) 🏭 DBT News

• ℹ️ No significant new DBT trade-policy announcement in last 24 hours

• 🔁 Most relevant item (last 7 days): DBT/UKRI-linked innovation competitions are open for firms working on digital, EV and materials innovation, including a UK–Canada quantum communications demonstrator closing 26 November 2025, highlighting tech-heavy export potential.

e) 🌱 DEFRA / FSA – Biosecurity & BTOM

• 📄 BTOM context & parliamentary scrutiny

  A recent Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee report on UK–EU trade and the border underlines that the Border Target Operating Model (BTOM) is central to a risk-based SPS regime, and presses government for more transparent data on implementation impacts.

• 🌿 Plant-health BTOM portal remains the core reference

  For plant/plant-product importers, DEFRA’s Border TOM (plant health portal) and GOV.UK information leaflets remain the primary guidance on risk categories and phased controls.

f) 🚚 Logistics & UK Road Haulage

• ⚓ Ocean freight: recovery “on hold”

  Recent analysis highlights that weak demand plus vessel oversupply keep ocean freight rates under pressure, even as certain regulatory changes (like U.S. port fees on Chinese-built ships) introduce pockets of disruption. For UK hauliers and forwarders, this means ongoing rate volatility and margin pressure.

• 🚜 Agri-food importers: prepare for further BTOM phases

  The NFU continues to warn members that new post-Brexit border controls under BTOM will gradually tighten SPS and documentation requirements, and encourages hauliers and traders to monitor DEFRA timelines closely.

g) 💷 Grants & Funding (UKEF / Innovate UK / Local / UKSPF)

• 🔋 UKEF launches Critical Goods Export Development Guarantee

  UK Export Finance (UKEF) has introduced a new Critical Goods Export Development Guarantee, allowing it to back up to 80% of finance from commercial lenders for UK critical-minerals businesses, aimed at de-risking supply chains and encouraging on-shoring of key components.

• 🧪 Innovate UK – open calls relevant to exporters

  A range of Innovate UK calls remain open, including:

  • Biomedical Catalyst 2025 (up to £25m for SME-led health innovation)

  • Battery Innovation programmes (up to £20m each for feasibility & concept development)

  • National Materials Innovation Programme (advanced materials, including EV-related manufacturing)

  These are particularly relevant for export-oriented tech and manufacturing SMEs.

4️⃣ ONS Insight of the Day (Fresh, UK Trade Angle)

• UK exports of goods & services totalled £893bn

• UK imports totalled £919bn

• The EU accounted for 41% of UK exports and 50% of UK imports.

5️⃣ Sector Focus – ⚙️ Critical Minerals & Advanced Manufacturing

• The UK has now published a Critical Minerals Strategy 2035, including a £50m funding package and access to support from the National Wealth Fund plus UKEF’s new guarantee scheme.

• Aim: shore up domestic processing and supply capacity to reduce reliance on a small number of overseas suppliers — especially for EVs, batteries, aerospace and electronics.

• Map which of your products depend on critical minerals (e.g. battery materials, permanent magnets, high-grade alloys).

• Explore whether UKEF guarantees or Innovate UK calls could support capex, R&D or reshoring projects.

• Expect future origin and ESG questions from customers as they audit their own critical-mineral exposure.

6️⃣ Compliance Tip of the Day – 🔍 Use AI Diagnostics for “Silent Risk”

• HMRC has confirmed the 2025–26 duty-suspension application window opens today, 26 November 2025, with a deadline of 4 February 2026 — highly relevant if you import key inputs at MFN duty.

1. Identify HS codes that could benefit from duty suspension using your CDS data (volumes, values, duty paid)

2. Create an action list: which tariff lines to review, which suppliers to approach for better origin/ESG data, and where customs valuation or classification needs tightening before applying.

7️⃣ Did You Know? – 📜 Trade History with a Modern Twist

8️⃣ Tomorrow’s Look-Ahead – 🔭 Thursday 27 November 2025

• 📊 Market watchers will digest fresh commentary on WTO’s downgraded 2026 trade outlook and what it means for tariffs and supply-chain planning.

• 💼 Funding deadlines are approaching for several Innovate UK and DBT-linked innovation calls (including UK–Canada quantum networking and EV/battery-related programmes).

• 🧾 CDS data & duty-suspension planning: with HMRC’s duty-suspension window now open, many importers will begin pulling CDS reports to evidence volumes and economic impact — a good moment to check that your EORI and XI-EORI are correctly mapped in systems.

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