🌍🇬🇧 Export Unlocked™ — Daily Trade Briefing
Thursday 13 November 2025 |
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1) Morning Summary.
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🌍 Trade restrictions now touch US$2.7 trillion of goods in 2025 – Allianz Trade estimates that new or extended trade-restrictive measures in 2025 affected around US$2.7 trillion of goods, roughly 20% of global goods imports, reinforcing a more fragmented trade environment.
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Source: Reuters / Allianz Trade (2025)
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🇮🇳 India launches ₹450.6 billion (US$5.1 billion) support package for exporters – Following steep new U.S. tariffs (up to 50% on some Indian goods), India has approved a credit-guarantee and export-promotion package to cushion MSMEs and help firms pivot to new markets.
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Source: Reuters India – Nov 2025
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📊 Fresh ONS data: UK trade in Q3 2025 shows wider goods deficit but stronger services – The UK trade in goods deficit (excl. precious metals) widened to £59.6 billion in Q3 2025, while the trade in services surplus edged up to £54.0 billion as services exports outpaced imports.
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Source: ONS UK Trade Release – Q3 2025
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2) Breaking International Trade News (Global)
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• 📉 Global trade restrictions intensify
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Allianz Trade’s latest assessment finds that in 2025 alone, newly implemented or prolonged trade-restrictive measures impacted US$2.7 trillion worth of goods trade, equivalent to about one-fifth of global imports.
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Source: Reuters / Allianz Trade Report
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• 🇮🇳 India’s exporter rescue package after U.S. tariff hikes
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India’s cabinet has signed off ₹450.6 billion (≈US$5.1 billion) in support for exporters, including ₹200 billion in credit guarantees and ₹250.6 billion over six years for affordable trade finance and logistics. U.S. tariffs of up to 50% have already pushed merchandise exports to the U.S. down nearly 12% YoY.
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Source: Reuters India Trade Desk – Nov 2025
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• 🌾 China’s soybean glut undermines U.S. export hopes
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China is sitting on around 10.3 million tonnes of soybeans in port stockpiles + large state reserves; weak crush margins + cheaper Brazilian supply are limiting U.S. export potential despite official pledges.
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Source: Reuters Commodities – Nov 2025
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3) UK Trade & Compliance
a) 🏛️ HMRC update
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• New excise-measure changes for tobacco and fuel (11 November 2025)
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HMRC has updated excise measures for tobacco, fuel and related products in the UK Tariff (Chapters 24, 27, 34, 38), preparing the system for future 10-digit code changes.
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Source: HMRC Tariff Update – 11 Nov 2025
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b) 🇬🇧 UK trade news
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• Fresh release – UK Trade: September 2025 (published today)
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Goods deficit widened to £59.6bn; services surplus increased to £54.0bn.
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Source: ONS UK Trade Bulletin – 13 Nov 2025
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c) 📘 UK trade strategy (policy/consultations)
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• Trade & Investment Core Statistics – Updated cross-government view
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Refreshed late October 2025 and used as input for “UK Trade in Numbers” releasing 20 Nov 2025.
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Source: DBT / ONS Core Statistics Book – Oct 2025
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d) 🏢 DBT news
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• No significant new DBT trade-policy announcement in the last 24 hours.
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Most relevant item: DBT is preparing UK Trade in Numbers – 20 November 2025.
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Source: DBT Forthcoming Publications – Nov 2025
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e) 🌱 DEFRA / FSA biosecurity & BTOM notes
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• No major BTOM schedule change in the last 24 hours.
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DEFRA continues to stress updated health certificates and pre-notification as controls increase into 2026.
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Source: DEFRA BTOM Guidance – Oct/Nov 2025
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f) 🚚 Logistics & UK Road Haulage
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• Global trade-finance gap still at US$2.5 trillion
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SMEs face continued pressure as lenders tighten underwriting on trade flows.
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Source: Asian Development Bank – Trade Finance Gap Report 2025
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g) 💡 Grants & Funding (UKEF / Innovate UK / Local / UKSPF)
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• Innovate UK – export-oriented zero-emission & battery projects
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Funding open for zero-emission vehicles + battery-system R&D.
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Source: Innovate UK Funding Competitions – Nov 2025
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4) ONS Insight of the Day (NEW angle)
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• In Q3 2025, the UK trade in goods deficit (excl. precious metals) widened to £59.6bn, while the services surplus rose to £54.0bn.
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Source: ONS UK Trade – 13 Nov 2025
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Why it matters: service-wrapped exports are becoming essential for manufacturers.
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5) Sector Focus – Critical Minerals & Clean-Tech Supply Chains
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• Nearly US$5 trillion in CapEx may be needed globally to avoid metals/critical-mineral shortfalls for the energy transition.
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Source: FT Energy Transition Special – Nov 2025
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• Shortages could raise EV/battery/solar/grid hardware costs through 2035–2050.
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Source: IEA Critical Minerals Review – 2025
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6) Compliance Tip of the Day – Linking to Export Unlocked’s AI Diagnostics
🛡️ Theme: Sanctions, excise and classification – don’t ignore the small print
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• HMRC recently issued a £1.1m compound settlement for a sanctions breach — proving firms must proactively monitor sanctions exposure.
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Source: HMRC Enforcement Notices – Oct/Nov 2025
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• New excise-measure changes show how frequently HS codes and duties shift.
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Source: HMRC Tariff Updates – 11 Nov 2025
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Action with Export Unlocked AI Diagnostics:
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✔ Run Sanctions & Routing Risk scan
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✔ Use Commodity-Code & Excise Check
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✔ Generate RAG dashboard for peak season
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7) Did You Know? / On This Day in Trade History
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📜 The Marrakesh Agreement (WTO)
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Entered into force 1 January 1995, creating today’s rules-based global trading system.
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Source: WTO Legal Texts – Marrakesh Agreement (1995)
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8) Tomorrow’s Look-Ahead (Friday 14 November 2025)
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• 📅 ONS: “Public opinions and social trends – October 2025” publishes tomorrow.
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Source: ONS Release Calendar
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• 🇮🇳🇺🇸 India–US developments: Watching real credit flow to Indian exporters from the new ₹450.6bn support package.
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• 🌾 Commodities: Grain/soybean markets await USDA + China demand signals.
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Source: Reuters Agriculture Desk – Nov 2025
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9) Students’ & Entrepreneurs’ Corner
🎓 Students
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• India’s ₹450.6bn exporter-support package as a live tariff-response case study.
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💼 Entrepreneurs / SMEs
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• US$2.7 trillion of goods now touched by trade restrictions in 2025.
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Source: Allianz Trade / Reuters
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• US$2.5 trillion global trade-finance gap affects SME export capacity.
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Source: ADB Trade Finance Survey 2025
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10) UK–Northern Ireland Trade: 2024 Data & Forward-Looking View
2024 snapshot – GB → NI movements
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• 11,400 businesses involved in full customs declarations (+2.2% YoY).
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Source: HMRC NI Goods Movements 2024
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• 10,400 via TSS (+2.5%); 1,900 via CDS (flat YoY).
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Source: Trader Support Service Annual Data – 2024
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Wider NI trade context
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• Total NI sales (2023): £97.6bn
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• Exports outside UK: £16.2bn
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Planning assumptions 2025–26
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• Goods value GB→NI fell –3.3% (from £17.8bn to £17.2bn).
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Source: HMRC NI Trade Statistics 2024
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